The man tasked with keeping the Democrats in power in the Senate this election has predicted that his party is on track to defy the odds and hang on to its narrow majority.
“I think we’re going to hold the majority. I feel good where we are,” Michigan Senator Gary Peters, the chairman of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, told reporters at a breakfast hosted by The Christian Science Monitor on Tuesday morning
That’s a tall order.
Democrats currently hold 51 Senate seats, meaning if they hold the White House this fall, they can only afford to lose one — and the retirement of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, but guarantee they’ll be a seat . (In the case of a 50-50 Senate, the vice president gives the casting vote).
That means they’ll likely need to sweep all the other seats they currently hold, including winning red states like Montana and Ohio, as well as battleground states in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats have also looked at possible pickup opportunities in Florida and Texas, although these states are uphill battles and have not yet seen the level of financial investment from Democrats like other races.
Mr. Peters said he expected many of the races to be neck and neck on Election Day.
“We’re basically where I think we’d be after Labor Day in really tight races,” he said. “And in the end it will be won at the margin.”
Democrats held poll leads in most swing states, although public opinion polls indicated tighter races. His toughest challenges, however, will come defending Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Mr. Peters acknowledged that it is not as easy as it once was for Senate candidates to win in states where the presidential race breaks the other way – “getting ticket splitters is harder than it used to be “. But he argued that the strong unique brands that Senators Tester and Brown have cultivated in their nearly two decades in office helped them survive this election cycle.
Senator Tester appears to be in worse shape right now, trailing in a few public and private polls, while Senator Brown has so far maintained a lead in his race.
Mr. Peters argued that the Democrats could still hold the Senate even if Mr. Tester is short, arguing that Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida were both beatable. Public opinion polls have shown that the two races are competitive. But Republicans still lead — and those states are two of the most expensive in the nation to advertise because of their many expensive media markets. Mr. Peters said that Democrats just put more money into field operations in both states, but they have yet to reveal any major TV bookings, which would be a sign that they are really playing to win in those states.
Mr Peters conceded that “you need to be on TV in a big way” and invest in other digital and social media to have a real shot at winning any race. He refused to commit his committee to doing so.
“Decisions about what kind of resources will come in will be made in real time and are likely to evolve,” he said. “Democrats will put more resources into those states if the momentum we’ve seen today continues. I’m certainly very encouraged.”
Mr. Peters noted that abortion referendums are on the ballot in Montana and Texas, as well as in other states with Senate races such as Arizona. Previous state referendums in purple and red states have spurred big increases in Democratic turnout and been approved by wide margins by voters, and Mr. Peters predicted that could help him win.
“We expect it to be very powerful,” he said.
